Journal of Economic Geography, Vol. 4, No. 4, © Oxford University Press 2004; all rights reserved.
Zipf's law strikes again: the case of tourism
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* Corresponding author: School of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Deakin University, 221 Burwood Highway, Burwood, Victoria 3125, Australia. email
maulubas{at}deakin.edu.au
** Deakin Business School, Deakin University, 336 Glenferrie Road, Malvern, Victoria 3144, Australia. email
hazari{at}deakin.edu.au
Abstract
This paper examines the applicability of Zipf's law to tourism. It is established that a variation of this law holds in this casea rank-size rule with concavity. Due to this non-linearity, it is shown that a spline regression provides an extremely convenient tool for predicting tourist arrivals in a country. The concavity is explained by appealing to random growth theory (lognormal distribution; Gibrat's law) and locational fundamentals.
Keywords: complex networks, Gibrat's law, tourism, Zipf's law,
JEL classifications: C16, C21, L8, R12
Date submitted: 6 June 2003
Date accepted: 23 February 2004