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Journal of Economic Geography 2004 4(4):459-472; doi:10.1093/jnlecg/lbh030
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Journal of Economic Geography, Vol. 4, No. 4, © Oxford University Press 2004; all rights reserved.

Zipf's law strikes again: the case of tourism

Mehmet A. Ulubasoglu* and Bharat R. Hazari**

* Corresponding author: School of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Deakin University, 221 Burwood Highway, Burwood, Victoria 3125, Australia. email <maulubas{at}deakin.edu.au>
** Deakin Business School, Deakin University, 336 Glenferrie Road, Malvern, Victoria 3144, Australia. email <hazari{at}deakin.edu.au>

Abstract

This paper examines the applicability of Zipf's law to tourism. It is established that a variation of this law holds in this case—a rank-size rule with concavity. Due to this non-linearity, it is shown that a spline regression provides an extremely convenient tool for predicting tourist arrivals in a country. The concavity is explained by appealing to random growth theory (lognormal distribution; Gibrat's law) and locational fundamentals.

Keywords: complex networks, Gibrat's law, tourism, Zipf's law,
JEL classifications: C16, C21, L8, R12
Date submitted: 6 June 2003     Date accepted: 23 February 2004


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